With a Presidential Republican victory confirmed, let’s discuss what might be coming over the next four years. While no one can predict exactly what the market will do, here are some things to watch:
Rate Cuts: It remains to be seen what policies will be enacted in the first six months of Trump’s presidency, but they are anticipated to be economically stimulative. If so, the Fed could slow down the pace of rate cuts as a precaution to overstimulation and the return of inflation.
Tax Cuts & Extensions: There are several reasons why equity markets jumped once Trump’s win was announced — and the promise of lower taxes is one of them. We expect lower taxes to be a centerpiece of this administration’s early days, especially since the corporate tax reduction will be expiring. The trick will be to fill the revenue hole left behind and organize budget-conscious Republicans in the Senate and House.
Immigration: We expect President-elect Trump to immediately begin making good on some of the immigration promises he made during the election. From a labor perspective, this will come with consequences. Many construction, farming, and manual labor jobs are filled with immigrants who might return home voluntarily or involuntarily. Tackling illegal immigration without destroying badly needed legal immigration will be incredibly important.
A Look Back: Key Market Events of 2017-2020
Understanding past market trends can also offer valuable insights. Let’s revisit the dramatic shifts that shaped the financial landscape from 2017 to 2020.
2017 | The Calm Before the Storm: This year was marked by unusually low volatility, with the Dow outperforming the S&P 500 as investors favored infrastructure stocks.
2018 | A Hawkish Fed & Trade Wars: However, the relative calm of 2017 was shattered in 2018 when a more aggressive Federal Reserve and escalating trade tensions with China fueled market anxiety. By year-end, a combination of rate hikes, tariff fears, and political uncertainty led to substantial losses across major indices.
2019 | Recovery & Warning Signs: While 2019 began with a market recovery, economic data started to show cracks, including an inverted yield curve, signaling a potential recession. Despite these warning signs, the Fed’s intervention and rate cuts fueled another market surge.
2020 | Pandemic Panic & Unprecedented Rebound: The optimism of early 2020 was quickly overshadowed by the COVID-19 pandemic, which triggered a dramatic market crash. However, against all odds, massive government stimulus, rock-bottom interest rates, and business support programs fueled an unprecedented rebound, with the S&P 500 ending the year near all-time highs.
Outlook: Positive Signs
While we are not political experts, we expect President-elect Trump’s policies to be stimulative to the economy and reduce the risk of a broad economic recession — especially if Republicans hold the Senate and the House.
However, we’re concerned he might act too aggressively in areas such as immigration that will negatively impact critical economic components, such as construction and food supply. Further, Republican policies complicate how the Fed may proceed with anticipated rate cuts and may result in substantial bond volatility.
Overall, though, we see positive signs for markets and the economy if policies are enacted in a thoughtful and measured way.
Your Opportunity to Guide Clients & Strengthen Relationships
While this uncertainty can be unsettling to your investors, it’s a good opportunity to leverage your expertise to guide them. Here are a few tips:
Recognize that clients may be susceptible to behavioral biases:
- Investors may seek out information that confirms their existing political beliefs, potentially leading to irrational investment decisions. Encourage clients to evaluate information from diverse sources and question the validity of headlines.
- Fear of potential market downturns driven by election outcomes can trigger a strong desire to sell investments and move to cash. Remind clients that market volatility is normal and that reacting emotionally can harm long-term returns.
Counteract sensationalism by grounding conversations in data and historical trends:
- Highlight that markets have historically performed well under both Republican and Democratic administrations. While short-term volatility is expected, the S&P 500 has consistently generated positive returns over the long run, regardless of who occupies the White House.
- Explain that campaign promises often face significant hurdles in Congress, and their actual impact on the economy and markets can be less dramatic than initially feared.
Reach out to clients before they contact you. By addressing concerns proactively, you can:
- Remind clients that election cycles are temporary, while a well-crafted investment strategy is designed to withstand short-term fluctuations.
- Use market commentary and historical data to demonstrate the resilience of markets in the face of political change.
Finally, consider leveraging resources like Helios’ white-labeled market commentary to support your conversations.