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Market Jitters Persist as Long-Term Treasury Yields Approach 5%



  • Global bonds experienced their weakest month since February amid speculation of elevated interest rates by central banks. Yields on 30-year US Treasuries reached 4.81% on Thursday, the highest since 2010, while 10-year Treasuries hit 4.69%, the highest since 2007.
  • The possibility of a US government shutdown is causing concern among bond traders and adding uncertainty to financial markets. While historically, government shutdowns have led to short-term relief for Treasury bonds as they serve as a safe haven, they also introduce market volatility.
  • Some analysts expect the shutdown to boost shorter-term Treasury bonds due to reduced risk appetite; however, concerns about the fiscal outlook could increase the term premium on long-dated securities, dissuading investors from investing in US Treasuries.
Sources: Helios Quantitative Research, Bloomberg