Let’s talk about growth!
Q3 GDP Outperforms Consensus, but Slower Growth is on the Horizon
- Third quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.9%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 4.5% and marking the US economy’s fastest growth rate in nearly two years.
- Consumption saw a jump of 4.0%, contributing 2.7 percentage points to overall GDP growth – the highest since 2021.
- On the inflation front, the GDP deflator rose by 3.5%, exceeding the consensus estimate of 2.5%. Meanwhile, the core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, increased by 2.4%, slightly below the expected 2.5%.
- Year-over-year inflation for Q3 dipped to 3.2% from 7.2% in the same quarter last year, indicating a continued downward trend.
- Anticipated Q4 growth is set to decelerate, largely due to declining household real incomes, challenging the sustainability of Q3 spending levels.