Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:
- The federal shutdown that began October 1 has halted critical economic data releases, leaving markets to rely on private reports. The Bureau of Labor Statistics recalled staff to produce the delayed September CPI, now expected October 24, underscoring its importance for Social Security adjustments. The lack of official jobs and inflation data adds uncertainty ahead of the Fed’s October 28-29 meeting.
- The Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes revealed deep divisions among officials after their first rate cut of 2025. Most agreed that more easing is needed due to a softening labor market but debated whether to deliver two or three total cuts by year-end. Policymakers remain cautious about inflation risks, especially from tariffs, even as employment concerns take priority in their dual mandate.
- China expanded rare earth export restrictions on October 9, prompting President Trump to announce 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, on top of existing 30% duties. The escalation spooked markets, triggering the worst selloff since April. China warned of countermeasures but said it’s “not afraid” of a trade war. Trump later struck a more conciliatory tone, though the tariff deadline remains in place.
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