Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:
- President Trump signed a bill on November 12 ending the longest U.S. government shutdown, which disrupted key economic data and cost an estimated 60,000 private-sector jobs. The October jobs and inflation reports will not be released, leaving the Federal Reserve with limited information as it considers a potential rate cut in December.
- U.S. employers announced over 153,000 job cuts in October, the highest for the month since 2003 and up 175% from 2024, led by tech and retail. AI-related restructuring accounted for 31,000 cuts, and year-to-date layoffs have topped 1.09 million. Hiring also slowed, with ADP reporting just 42,000 private jobs added. The data signals an end to talent hoarding as firms shift focus to productivity.
- U.S. stocks experienced sharp selling pressure as two Fed officials pushed back on a December rate cut, sending the VIX above 16.5%. Consumer sentiment fell to 50.3 in November, near the 2022 low, amid shutdown-related concerns. This combination of hawkish Fed signals and weakening confidence raises recession risks, despite the S&P 500’s 15.7% year-to-date total return.
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