Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:
- Initial jobless claims fell by 6K in the week ending Nov. 16, the lowest since mid-April, as employers likely retained workers ahead of the holidays. Continuing claims rose by 36K to a three-year high of 1.9 million, reflecting longer job searches for the unemployed. Layoffs remain low, but job cuts announced by major employers like Boeing and Stellantis could push claims higher after the holiday season.
- Existing home sales rose 3.4% in October to an annualized rate of 3.96 million, supported by a temporary drop in mortgage rates, which fell to a two-year low of 6.13% after the Federal Reserve’s September rate cut. However, mortgage rates have since climbed to 6.90% as of mid-November, and limited inventory continues to keep home prices elevated, both of which are expected to dampen future demand.
- In the final November reading, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 1.3 points to 71.8, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 2.6% from 2.7%, while long-run inflation expectations increased to 3.2% from 3.0%, signaling diverging views on short- and long-term inflation.
Want to learn more about Helios Quantitative Research? Click Here to schedule a meeting with one of our representatives!