Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:
- Retail sales rose just 0.2% in September, down from 0.6% in August and below expectations, as shoppers pulled back on autos, electronics, and apparel. Core retail sales, which feed into GDP, were flat, suggesting underlying consumer demand is softening. With holiday promotions ramping up, retailers face a tougher backdrop and may need steeper discounts to drive traffic and avoid a disappointing fourth quarter.
- The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.3% in September, mainly due to a 1.1% jump in food prices and higher energy costs. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased a smaller-than-expected 0.2%, with the annual core rate easing to 2.6%, the lowest since July 2024. This suggests inflation pressures remain limited, supporting the Federal Reserve’s gradual path toward rate cuts.
- The U.S. Treasury set a temporary Consumer Price Index (CPI) value for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) after the official October CPI was delayed by the government funding lapse. This eliminates short-term uncertainty in TIPS payments and adjustments but highlights growing risks around data quality and timing, especially as markets rely on inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s next move.
Want to learn more about Helios Quantitative Research? Click Here to schedule a meeting with one of our representatives!