Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:
- In their final meeting of 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept interest rates unchanged and signaled a dovish pivot, indicating an end to the tightening cycle. The revised dot plot forecasts a lower path for rates, suggesting three rate cuts in 2024, four rate cuts in 2025, and three rate cuts in 2026.
- The market responded positively, with Treasury yields falling, the S&P 500 rallying, and the US dollar weakening. The Dow broke above 37,000 following the Fed’s policy release on Wednesday and continued its ascent to reach new all-time highs on Friday.
- The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1%, slightly above expectations, with a year-over-year change of 3.1%. Heading into Q4, projections show the headline CPI and core CPI are on course to hit 3.2% and 3.9%, respectively.
- Retail sales unexpectedly rose in November, and jobless claims fell to their lowest level since October, approaching historic lows.
- Mortgage rates fell below 7% for the first time in four months, with Freddie Mac hinting that the market could thaw next year. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.95% last week, down from a high of 7.79% in late October.
Want to learn more about Helios Quantitative Research? Click Here to schedule a meeting with one of our representatives!