Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:
- The November jobs report painted a picture of a labor market that is bending but not breaking. Payrolls rose 64,000, topping the 45,000 estimate and partially rebounding from October’s 105,000 decline driven by federal workforce cuts. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, while wage growth cooled to 3.5% year-over-year. Hiring is slowing enough to ease wage pressures without signaling a broader downturn.
- The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) provided the clearest signal yet that price pressures are dissipating. Headline inflation fell to 2.7% year-over-year, the lowest level since July and significantly below the 3.1% forecast. Falling energy costs and slower shelter inflation helped. Still, data quality remains a concern after the 43-day government shutdown and the partial November sampling, which may have captured Black Friday discounting.
- October retail sales were unchanged, missing the 0.1% estimate, as auto sales dropped 1.6% following the September expiration of the $7,500 EV credit. Excluding autos, however, sales rose a healthy 0.4%, with online retail up 1.8%, a positive signal for holiday spending momentum. This divergence suggests consumers are redirecting savings from lower gas prices into goods, keeping overall spending steady and recession concerns at bay.
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