Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:
- September’s delayed PCE inflation report showed core prices, which exclude food and energy, rising 2.8% year-over-year, down from 2.9% in August and in line with expectations. The softer print, together with weaker spending data, has markets pricing roughly an 87% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting.
- Personal income rose 0.4% in September, supported by higher wages and investment income, while real consumer spending was essentially flat, the weakest since May. Services continued to grow, but goods purchases softened. The stall in inflation-adjusted spending, despite rising incomes, signals a cooling consumer that could weigh on fourth-quarter growth.
- U.S. manufacturing remained in contraction in November, with the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index slipping to 48.2 from 48.7 in October, a four-month low and the ninth straight sub-50 reading. New orders and employment both weakened, and manufacturers pointed to tariff-driven cost pressures and policy uncertainty as major headwinds, keeping the factory sector a key soft spot in the broader economy.
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