Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:
- US inflation rose in January at the fastest pace since August 2023, driven by higher costs for essentials like groceries, gas, housing, car insurance, and prescription drugs. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.4%, exceeding forecasts. The data suggests inflation progress has stalled, lowering expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts.
- Retail sales fell 0.9% in January as cold weather and a post-holiday pullback weighed on consumers. Shoppers cut back on big-ticket items like furniture and home goods, likely after early purchases to avoid tariffs. While temporary factors may be at play, the decline suggests slower consumer spending and weaker economic momentum in early 2025.
- Small-business optimism dipped slightly in January from December’s six-year high, partly due to uncertainty over tariffs and their impact on growth and inflation. Despite this, 77% of owners see this as a good time to expand, and 47% expect better conditions—both up from recent months. However, capital spending plans declined, and inventory plans fell to zero, signaling some caution.
Want to learn more about Helios Quantitative Research? Click Here to schedule a meeting with one of our representatives!