Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:
- Sentiment declined further, plunging to 64.7 from 71.7 in January with all five subcomponents worsening. Uncertainty and fears around tariffs seemingly are having a substantial impact with long-run inflation expectations rising to the highest since 1995.
- Signals of weakness in the housing market with existing home sales slumping in January, missing expectations. Elevated mortgage rates are likely suppressing home sales though a typically volatile months of December and January make it hard to extrapolate too far.
- The meeting minutes from the latest Fed meeting continue to support the prevailing expectations of a higher-for-longer narrative with substantially less rate cuts than we began the year. The minutes suggest the Fed will need to see a sustained disinflationary trend to cute rates any further.
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