Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:
- The US job market added 151,000 jobs in February, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, signaling a cooling labor market. More people are struggling to find permanent work, federal payrolls have shrunk, and a growing number of workers are taking part-time jobs because they can’t find full-time positions. Meanwhile, nearly 8.9 million Americans are now juggling multiple jobs—a record high.
- The ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.3 in February from 50.9, signaling modest expansion but slower new orders and production. Input costs surged, with the prices-paid index jumping to the highest level since mid-2022, which may lead firms to raise prices. With supplier deliveries slowing and firms adjusting inventories ahead of potential tariff changes, supply chain pressures could add further uncertainty.
- In contrast, the US services sector expanded in February, driven by resilient demand and strong hiring, with employment reaching its highest level since December 2021. Costs for materials and services increased, adding to inflation concerns. Despite steady growth in services, broader economic data suggests a weaker start to the year, with the Atlanta Fed forecasting a first-quarter GDP decline, partly due to a surge in imports as businesses anticipate tariffs.
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