This just in: CEO Chris Shuba in Financial Planning

Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:

  • The probability of a 25-basis-point increase next month was 82% as of April 21, 2023, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, suggesting futures traders have penciled in a hike although expectations can be volatile.
  • Equity volatility could ramp up next week as big tech companies (Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon) report earnings, and a miss by any of the mega-caps could cause more stress on Wall Street. FactSet projected that average earnings per share for tech could fall 15.1%, due to several factors, including the strong dollar, sluggish demand for semiconductors, businesses cutting back on cloud computing, and waning personal computer sales following impressive gains during the pandemic.
  • US business activity unexpectedly climbed to a nearly one-year high, with the S&P Global flash April composite Purchasing Managers Index rising to 53.5, indicating expansion and the potential for inflationary pressures.
  • Oil prices and the S&P 500 have not been moving in lockstep since early March, with crude futures experiencing volatility while the SPX remains range bound.

Want to learn more about Helios Quantitative Research? Click Here to schedule a meeting with one of our representatives!