Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:
- A U.S. court ruled that President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs exceeded legal authority, but an appeals court paused the decision for further review. The legal uncertainty has disrupted trade planning, though analysts expect the U.S. to pursue alternative measures with a similar impact, with the effective tariff rate likely settling around 15%.
- The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.1% in April, bringing the annual rate to 2.1%, aligning closely with the Fed’s 2% target. Personal income grew at its fastest pace since January 2024, driven by wage increases and Social Security payments, while higher savings indicated increased caution and potentially stronger household finances.
- Consumer confidence rebounded sharply in May, according to The Conference Board, with optimism driven by a temporary U.S.-China tariff truce and improved short-term expectations. However, the University of Michigan’s sentiment index remained low and unchanged, as concerns about inflation and future economic conditions continued to weigh on consumers.
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