Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:
- Inflation picked up slightly in June, with prices rising 0.3% and 2.7% over the past year. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2%, signaling underlying pressures remain mild. Shelter and gasoline led the gains, and early tariff impacts appeared in goods like appliances and apparel. Overall, prices are still cooling compared to last year.
- June retail sales rose 0.6 % from the previous month, beating forecasts and reversing May’s 0.9% drop. Strength in cars, restaurants, and building supplies offset softness in furniture and electronics. With the upside surprise easing slowdown fears and jobless claims still low, many economists still expect one rate cut this summer, though solid consumer demand could delay it.
- The EU is preparing contingency measures as U.S. trade talks stall ahead of the August 1 deadline. The U.S. is considering tariffs of up to 30% on most EU exports. A lack of agreement could impact trade flows, supply chains, and currency markets, increasing uncertainty for exporters
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