Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:
- The U.S. economy added just 73,000 jobs in July, well below expectations, with major downward revisions to prior months slashing 258,000 jobs and dropping the three-month average to just 35,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2% (vs 4.1% in June), and while wage growth held steady at 3.9% year-over-year, job gains were mostly limited to the health and education sectors, while manufacturing employment hit a three-year low.
- Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3% in Q2, rebounding sharply from a 0.5% decline in Q1. However, much of the gain was driven by technical factors in the GDP formula rather than a genuine pickup in economic activity. The outlook for Q3 has softened, with the Atlanta Fed projecting 2.3% growth and full-year estimates drifting toward 1.6% amid ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty.
- The Fed held rates steady at its July meeting, with two officials dissenting in favor of a cut. Chair Powell emphasized a data-dependent stance amid weakening job growth and ongoing inflation risks. Markets remain uncertain about the timing of future cuts, though odds for easing later this year are rising.
Want to learn more about Helios Quantitative Research? Click Here to schedule a meeting with one of our representatives!