Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary revision shows U.S. employers added 911,000 fewer jobs from March 2024 to March 2025 than first reported, about 76,000 fewer per month. The steepest revision since 2002 signals the labor market was weakening earlier than thought, reinforcing the case for Fed easing at their September 16-17 meeting.
- Consumer prices rose 2.9% in August from a year earlier, up from 2.7% in July and the fastest pace since January. Shelter, energy, and food costs drove the increase, with tariffs driving goods prices higher. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.1%, reinforcing concerns about persistent price pressures and complicating the Fed’s path to rate cuts.
- Consumer sentiment dropped to 55.4 in September, the lowest since May, as concerns over tariffs and inflation grew. The sharpest declines came from lower- and middle-income households, with 60% citing tariffs as a concern. Weaker confidence and rising inflation expectations may pressure consumer spending ahead, posing downside risk to growth and earnings in consumer-facing sectors
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