Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:
- The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, rose to 2.7% annually in August, the highest in six months. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, held steady at 2.9%. Personal spending climbed 0.6%, driven by services and nondurable goods. Income rose 0.4% while the savings rate fell to a 2025 low of 4.6%, signaling strong spending despite inflation and reinforcing expectations for Fed rate cuts.
- U.S. GDP growth for Q2 2025 was revised sharply higher to 3.8% annualized, the strongest in nearly two years. The upgrade from the initially reported 3.0% was driven by stronger consumer spending, revised up to 2.5% from 1.6%. The report highlights surprising economic resilience after a weak Q1 and sets the stage for continued momentum heading into the third quarter.
- Consumer sentiment fell to 55.1 in September, the lowest since May, with broad declines across age and income groups. High prices weighed heavily, with 44% citing financial strain. Year-ahead inflation expectations dipped to 4.7%, but long-term expectations rose to 3.7%. The drop in confidence contrasts with strong spending, signaling consumers remain active despite rising concerns about inflation and a softening labor market.
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