Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:
- Second-quarter real GDP was revised up to 3.0% from 2.8% in the advance estimate. This was mainly due to a large upward revision in consumer spending, which was adjusted to 2.9% from the original estimate of 2.3%. Despite strong GDP and spending numbers, consumers are spending more than they earn, which may lead to slower economic growth as savings dwindle.
- Consumer spending rose 0.5% in July (0.4% when adjusted for inflation), matching expectations. Personal income grew 0.3%, outpacing predictions, but after adjusting for inflation, disposable income barely increased for the second month. Meanwhile, the savings rate dropped to 2.9%, the lowest level in over two years.
- The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy prices, held steady in July. It increased 0.2% from June, the same rate as last month, and 2.6% year-over-year. The Fed is expected to cut rates this month for the first time since 2020.
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