Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:
- The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, increased 0.13% in August. The cost of housing and utilities, along with food services and accommodation, pushed the figure up, outweighing the decline in prices of durable and nondurable goods.
- The Conference Board’s consumer-confidence index fell sharply in September to 98.7 from 105.6. Concerns about labor-market deterioration, which influenced the Fed’s decision to implement a 50-basis-point rate cut, also weighed on consumer sentiment. Weak labor market indicators will continue to play a key role in the Fed’s decisions regarding monetary easing.
- Markets have been particularly sensitive to unexpected shifts in US economic data lately, especially if it points to any signs of labor market weakness. Following a strong week of data, the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast projects third-quarter GDP growth at a solid 3.1%. The consensus remains optimistic, with most still anticipating a soft landing.
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