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Read the highlights of this week's commentary from Helios:
- Despite December’s stronger-than-expected industrial production and manufacturing output, driven partly by temporary factors like the Boeing strike resolution and weather-related gains, manufacturing remains fragile, with output largely flat in Q4 and uncertainties such as tariffs, policy disruptions, and a strong dollar likely limiting sustained recovery.
- Retail sales remained strong in December, though the growth was partially inflated by temporary factors like post-hurricane car sales and rising gas prices, which will weigh on consumer finances. Spending may soften as tariff-related boosts fade, savings dwindle, and wage and employment growth slows.
- Disinflation continues, despite year-over-year headline CPI increases. December’s core CPI was up just 0.2% and the core PCE deflator likely rising only 0.19%, as temporary factors fade and easing wage growth supports further inflation moderation.
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