Weekly Talking Points for Financial Advisors (1/5/2026)

Read the highlights of this week's commentary from Helios:

• The December Fed meeting minutes showed the 9-3 rate cut was even closer than it appeared. Several supporters called it "finely balanced," with some concerned inflation progress has stalled, with others focused on a softening labor market. Markets now price an 83% chance the Fed holds in January, signaling a likely pause as policymakers weigh competing risks.
• Jobless claims fell to 199,000 for the week ending December 27, the lowest since January. While layoffs remain low, hiring has slowed to just 55,000 jobs per month in 2025, roughly a third of last year's pace. The labor market looks steady but sluggish, suggesting a “low-hire, low-fire” trend that could weigh on growth if it continues into 2026.
• Despite a four-session losing streak into year-end, the S&P 500 finished 2025 up 17.9%, powered by continued AI enthusiasm. The three-year run marks a cumulative gain of nearly 80%, the strongest since 2019–2021. With valuations elevated, sustaining this momentum in 2026 may prove more challenging.

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