Weekly Talking Points for Financial Advisors (10/6/25)

Read the highlights of this week's commentary from Helios:

• The U.S. government shutdown that began on October 1 has delayed key economic data, including the September jobs report, limiting the Federal Reserve’s visibility ahead of its October meeting. With 98% of traders expecting a rate cut, the data blackout strengthens the case for easing. Economists estimate that each week of shutdown could reduce GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points, resulting in weekly economic losses of $7 to 15 billion.
• The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) rose to 49.1 in September but stayed in contraction for a seventh month. Production improved, but new orders fell, signaling weaker demand. Employment remained soft, while prices jumped. Just 5 of 18 industries grew, with 70% of manufacturing GDP contracting, pointing to broad weakness that may weigh on growth and earnings.
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.2 in September, the lowest since April, as views on current conditions and job availability worsened. The Expectations Index stayed below 80 for an eighth month, a typical recession signal. Growing pessimism and delayed big-ticket purchases may weigh on consumer spending, which drives two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

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