Weekly Talking Points for Financial Advisors (7/28/25)

Read the highlights of this week's commentary from Helios:

• The U.S. finalized two major trade agreements: the first with Japan, reducing tariffs on Japanese imports to 15% and preventing a higher 25% rate, with Japan committing $550B in U.S. investment and increased agricultural imports; the second with the EU, also establishing 15% tariffs on most EU products, with the EU committing up to $600B in U.S. investment and $750B in energy and military purchases.
• Margin debt hit a record $1 trillion in June, surpassing the previous peak of $937 billion set in February. The 18% jump in margin balances over the past two months is one of the quickest on record, similar to the run-ups seen before the 1999 tech bubble and the 2007 credit boom. Such leverage can fuel rallies, but it also sets the stage for deeper losses if sentiment shifts.
• June existing-home sales fell 2.7% to a 3.93 million annual pace, a nine-month low, and the median sales price rose 2% from last year to a record $435,300. Only 21% of June closings were above the list price, down from 28% in May, signaling a waning of pricing power. Limited supply and rate lock-in are sustaining prices even as transaction volumes remain weak.

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