This week’s commentary from Helios:
Nonfarm payrolls surprised on the upside again in February with 678K new jobs being added, ahead of the 423K that was expected by economists. Prior revisions, which have been significant lately, were more muted, though still positive, with 92K jobs added to the December and January figures. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%, from 4.0%
Despite the better-than-expected jobs report and Powell all but confirming a 25 basis point hike this month, Fed Futures keep shifting their view on the probabilities of rate hikes. Even since our last Due Diligence call, the probability of any hike at all has dropped below 100%, with an 8% chance (as of Friday afternoon) the Fed stays put in their March meeting.
With the crisis in Ukraine only escalating, oil prices rocketed upwards since March 1st with a quick increase from $95.72 at the end of February to over $115 on Friday.
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