After a string of positive jobs news, April’s payroll numbers were a massive miss. Expectations were for a nearly 1M gain in nonfarm payrolls, but the actual number came in at 266K, putting it as one of the largest downside miss on record. Further March’s figures were revised downwards as well. Following the smaller gain, the economy is still more than 8 million jobs short of the pre-pandemic levels. Overall, the unemployment rate ticked up a notch to 6.1%, versus 6.0% in March, though the participation rate was also increased.
Based on the miss and deflating some optimism around the recovery, Treasury yields fell, and tech stocks climbed on relaxed worries of higher rates and tighter monetary policy.
On the bright side, initial jobless claims continue to improve, with the first reading below 500K in quite some time. The May 1 figure came in at 498K versus 553K the week prior.
Famed investor, head of the Yale endowment, and pioneer in our industry David Swensen passed away. His ideas fundamentally changed how endowments across the world are managed, and his legacy will live on for a long time in our industry.