Let’s talk about the polls! Election Week Election Day is Tuesday, November 8th. Projections, according to PredictIt, estimate the Republicans taking control of both the Senate and House of Representatives.
While prediction and betting sites have grown in popularity, the projected outcomes haven’t always been accurate. Most memorably, the Presidential election in 2016 showed Hillary Clinton as an overwhelmingly favorite heading into Election Day.
Historically speaking, the stock market is pretty good at predicting which party will gain more seats in Congress and win the Presidency. That is, when the stock market is trending positive, the incumbent party maintains control, and when the stock market is trending negative, the other party takes control. If the Republicans take both the Senate and the House this week, the paradigm will hold true.