Read the highlights of this week’s commentary from Helios:
Third quarter US GDP rose at a 2.6% annualized rate, slightly ahead of expectations for a 2.4% rise. As a result, immediate recession talks were effectively put to bed in this report, but risks still remain for next year. The gain also reverses the prior two-quarters of losses, putting the inflation-adjusted size of the US economy slightly above Q4 2021.
In the GDP report, personal consumption, making up ~70% of the economy, grew at a 1.4% annualized rate, which slowed from Q2, but remains higher than Q1. Residential investment fell off a cliff, -26.4%, though business investment rose by 3.7%.
The Fed is meeting this week and will announce its next policy move on Wednesday. As of Friday at noon ET the market is pricing in an 84% probability of a 75 basis point hike and 16% for a 50 basis point hike.
Want to learn more about Helios Quantitative Research? Click Here to schedule a meeting with one of our representatives!