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The Most Important Thing Today (10/11/23)

The Most Important Thing Today (10/11/23)

Let's talk about labor!

September’s Blowout Jobs Report Strengthens Case for Another Fed Rate Hike

 

  • The labor market continues to outpace expectations. September's nonfarm payrolls surged by 336k, exceeding estimates by over 90%. Revisions added an additional 119k jobs for July and August.
  • Hiring saw a broad-based increase, notably in leisure and hospitality, health care, and professional and business services.
  • Unemployment held at 3.8%, with wages up 0.2% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year.
  • The report is considered a blowout as it marked the largest payroll boost since January.
  • Data from ADP showed that private employers added 89k new payrolls, down significantly from 177k in August – marking the third straight month of declining employment growth.
  • The current strength in the labor market could prompt the Fed to raise interest rates again before the end of the year, which are already at a 22-year peak.
  • In light of the labor market’s strength, the Fed may hike rates again before the end of the year, which are already at a 22-year high.
Source: Helios Quantitative Research, Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
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