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The Most Important Thing Today (10/11/23)
Let's talk about labor! September’s Blowout Jobs Report Strengthens Case for Another Fed Rate Hike
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- Third quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.9%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 4.5% and marking the US economy's fastest growth rate in nearly two years.
- Consumption saw a jump of 4.0%, contributing 2.7 percentage points to overall GDP growth – the highest since 2021.
- On the inflation front, the GDP deflator rose by 3.5%, exceeding the consensus estimate of 2.5%. Meanwhile, the core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, increased by 2.4%, slightly below the expected 2.5%.
- Year-over-year inflation for Q3 dipped to 3.2% from 7.2% in the same quarter last year, indicating a continued downward trend.
- Anticipated Q4 growth is set to decelerate, largely due to declining household real incomes, challenging the sustainability of Q3 spending levels.
Source: Helios Quantitative Research, Bloomberg, Bureau of Economic Analysis
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The Most Important Thing Today (10/16/23)
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The Most Important Thing Today (11/15/23)
Let's talk about the future! Forecasting Mortgage Rates: The Predictive Power of 10-Year Treasury Yields