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The Most Important Thing Today (11/22/23)
Let's talk about inflation! Annual Inflation Hits Fed Target in New England, Still Above 4% in the South Inflation...
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- The chart above shows the rolling 12-month average of multi-family housing projects beginning versus completion.
- While there is always a lag between when projects start versus finish, the decline in completions over 2022, even as new projects continued to accelerate, pointed to both labor and supply chain shortages that directly impacted delays of projects being completed.
- Over recent months projects have wrapped up at an increasing pace as those shortages have had less of an impact and may have knock-on impacts on forward-looking inflation expectations since shelter is such a large component of overall inflation.
- Real-time rent data has continued to show that rental and housing inflation is coming down faster than the CPI measure of shelter may suggest, and the rate of completions adds another layer to that story.
The Most Important Thing Today (4/26/23)
Let's talk about yields! Bond Yields Relatively Attractive, but Does it Matter?